GIS based spatio-temporal analysis of crime prevalence in Thulamela Local Municipality

Abstract

Crime is a serious problem with high social and economic costs in South Africa. It is neither unique nor random, but rather tends to be unevenly distributed and has a spatio-temporal pattern. The aim of this research is to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of crime prevalence in Thulamela Local Municipality using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). GIS applications were used to open new opportunities in crime control and prevention. The spatio-temporal distribution of crime in Thulamela Local Municipality was analysed using GIS tools. This research study adopted both quantitative and qualitative approaches to produce a more comprehensive study of the spatial and temporal distribution of crime in Thulamela Local Municipality. Data was analysed for various argumentations, i.e., spatial distribution of crimes, temporal trends, and identification of hotspots. A Hotspot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) tool was employed to unveil spatial clusters of crime prevalence. The analysis pinpointed distinct hotspots where crime incidents were significantly concentrated. The present study has found that crime incidences are influenced by various factors such as alcohol and substance abuse, domestic violence, illiteracy, poverty, unemployment, and self-enrichment. Thohoyandou was found to be one area with a high crime prevalence compared to Tshaulu and Mutale. Crime analysis did not only deepen our understanding of crime patterns, but also provided actionable insights on the types of crimes that happen in the different areas. By employing a diverse array of spatial and temporal analytical tools, I unearthed trends, clusters, and causative factors, understanding the socio-economic factors that play a role in the number of criminal activities that happen all over the country. As we continue to grapple with the multifaceted challenge of crime prevention, this comprehensive analysis serves as a foundation for data-driven strategies that can enhance public safety and well-being in Tshaulu, Mutale, Thohoyandou, and similar regions.