Effects of climate variability on citrus production and rural livelihoods in Mopani District Municipality, South Africa

Abstract

Climate variability has always had an impact on citrus production in South Africa. Climate models have projected increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns. These changes are likely to present a risk to farmers and rural individuals who depend on citrus production for their livelihoods at district level. Rural livelihoods are subjected to multiple climatic shocks and stresses that can increase household vulnerability. It is important to assess and understand the negative impacts of climate variability on citrus production and rural livelihoods to provide the best adaptive measures and strategies. This study, therefore, analyses the influence of climate variability on citrus production and rural livelihoods in Mopani District Municipality. To achieve this aim, quantitative and qualitative research methodologies were employed. Climate data from 1987 to 2017 was obtained from the South African Weather Service. Citrus production data, citrus farm net revenue, and citrus market chain statistics for the study period were obtained from citrus farms and government records such as the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development. Mann-Kendall trend analysis was applied to analyse temperature, rainfall, and citrus production trends. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to analyse precipitation anomalies in the study area. Multiple linear regression analysis was utilised to establish the relationship between climate variability and citrus production. Whilst simple linear regression was used to determine the influence of citrus production on farmers’ income and rural livelihood by establishing the relationship between citrus production and farm net revenue. The relationships were consistent at a 95% confidence level showing a ±5% margin of error (confidence interval). Semi-structured questionnaires were administered to citrus farmers, citrus workers, and citrus vendors to elicit data on climate variability impacts, perceptions, and adaptation strategies to deal with climatic shocks and stresses. Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS version 22) was used for its bivariate and univariate analysis capabilities. The findings show a variable significant relationship between climate variability and citrus production. Results indicated a very strong positive significant relationship between citrus production and farm net revenue. The study shows a significant relationship between livelihood variables and climate variability variables. Furthermore, the perceptions of citrus farmers, citrus workers, and citrus vendors correspond well with climatic trends that indicated flood and drought cycles. Due to the considerable climate variability over the study period, citrus farmers, citrus workers, and citrus vendors have adopted various coping strategies at on-farm and off-farm levels. The study concludes that climate variability and citrus production influence farmers' income and rural livelihoods. The study recommends a framework that includes water conservation, investment in irrigation systems, and other climate-smart agricultural technologies that would merge modern scientific knowledge and indigenous knowledge systems to maximise citrus productivity and improve rural livelihoods.