Abstract:
Many South African nature reserves, like the Kruger National Park (KNP) suffer from
monthly below average rainfall that puts pressure in the diversity of wildlife animals
in the park. Very little attention has been given to the behaviour of zebra population
during period of low rainfall in KNP. Hence, this thesis seeks to examine the role of
rainfall in the distribution of burchell’s zebra population from 1983 to 2012. Previous
work has failed to explain the abundance of zebras in areas of low rainfall resulting
from a long period of no rainfall in the area. Readily available data on rainfall and
zebra population distribution was acquired from the KNP. The semi-logarithmic
model was also proposed to estimate the probability of rainfall in the Kruger National
Park. Three periods of low rainfall period were estimated from the graph and the
years were further used to make comparison of how zebra behaves during periods
when rainfall is low, medium or highest. GIS tools (spline and kernel) were used to
analyse the trend between the years of zebras in relation to rainfall availability in
Kruger National Park and a map was created with these tools. The study was based
on a hypothesis that there exist a relationship between rainfall and the zebra
population. The study advances our understanding of what determines the
movement of burchell’s zebra in the park. The findings from the research show that
the impact of rainfall on zebra distribution is more complex than previously assumed.
The findings based on mapping were able to indicate that rainfall variability does not
influence the distribution of zebra, rather more zebras were found in areas with
sparse vegetation and avoid dense vegetation as much as possible.
