Abstract:
Climate variability and change directly affect agricultural production. This is because the agricultural sector is inherently sensitive to climatic conditions and is one of the most vulnerable sectors to risks and impact of global climate change. The aim of this study was to determine maize producer's vulnerability and assess the impact of climate variability and change on maize production in the Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, of Limpopo Province, South Africa. Climatic and maize yields data utilized in the study are for the period 1985 - 2015). Interviews were also conducted with the producers and various officials from government and non-governmental sectors.
The results illustrate significant rainfall and temperature variations both spatially and temporally. The variations observed in the average rainfall and rain days for the period under consideration were not related to the variation in yield of maize for the same period. The regression results revealed low R² values, indicating a weak relationship between maize yields, rain days and rainfall. Furthermore, the results revealed a significant positive relationship between annual rainfall and temperature (r²<0.05 and P<0.05) but not a significant relationship with maize yields.
The results of the qualitative data showed that the producers’ perception of the occurrence of climate variability was high, as 65.7% of the respondents indicated that the state of climate is increasingly variable. About 61.5% of the producers implemented or adopted an adaptation strategy to cope with the perceived climate variability and change. Age, gender and access to extension services were determined as important factors that determine the adoption of adaptation strategies. The vulnerability assessment revealed that producers were highly vulnerable to changing climate; this exposes producers to the risks of crop failure, loss of income and food insecurity. The study recommended (a) intervention and adaptation strategies that target mitigation of decreased rainfall impacts (b) increased access to extension service (c) empirical research around the impacts of climate change to increase producers’ level of awareness.
