Department of Accountancy

Permanent URI for this community

https://univendspace.univen.ac.za/handle/11602/1949

Browse

Browsing Department of Accountancy by Author "Mache, F."

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    The impact of macroeconomic variables on the equity market risk premium in South Africa
    (2018-09-21) Obadire, Ayodeji Michael; Moyo, V.; Mache, F.
    The relationship between the Equity Market Risk Premium (MRP) and macroeconomic variables has been a subject of extensive discussion in the finance literature. The MRP is a central component of the main asset pricing models which are used to estimate the cost of equity which is mainly used in investment appraisal, performance measurement and valuation of equity assets. Past studies have identified inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate and political risk as the key macroeconomic variables that determine the size of the MRP. The test of the impact of these variables on the MRP have however been based mainly on data from developed countries and a few emerging countries. To the researcher’s knowledge, there are no studies that have investigated the impact of these macroeconomic variables on the MRP in South Africa. It is necessary to test the impact of these variables in the context of South Africa as these variables vary across countries. Using time series secondary data that was obtained from the SARB database, JSE database and World Bank database for the period 2002 to 2017, this study investigated the impact of these variables on the MRP in South Africa. A total of 192 observations per series of the inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, political risk, JSE-ALSI and 91-days Treasury bill was used in the study. The data used were tested for possible misspecification errors that could arise from using a time series secondary data and the regression model was fitted using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. The misspecification tests and models were both implemented on STATA 15 software. The results shows that inflation rate, interest rate and foreign exchange rate have a negative impact on the MRP whilst political risk has a positive impact on the MRP. Furthermore, the result shows that the inflation rate is the only variable amongst other variable tested that has a significant influence on the MRP for the study period. The study, therefore, concludes that inflation rate has the highest impact on the MRP in the context of South Africa. The study recommends that inflation rate should be monitored and kept within its target of 3-6% amongst other variables tested in order to increase investors’ confidence in the security market and also foster economic growth. The main limitations to the study were the limited data sources and insufficient funds.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    The impact of the global financial crisis on the cash flow sensitivity of investment: some evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange listed non-financial firms
    (2018-05-18) Munthali, Ronald; Moyo, V.; Mache, F.
    The relationship between a firm’s investment behaviour, financial constraints and the level of internally generated cash flows has been a subject of extensive discussion in finance literature. The discussion revolves around the effectiveness of investment cash flow sensitivity (ICFS) as a measure of financial constraints with contradicting conclusions. Empirical literature is also not in agreement about the best firm-specific proxy to distinguish firms into financially-constrained versus financially-unconstrained ones and the effect of the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis on the ICFS of South African firms is still to be determined. There are very limited studies that have investigated ICFS in developing economies. This is important as institutional differences and capital market developments between developed and developing economies justify a separate study of South Africa as a developing economy. This study used data drawn from 131 Johannesburg Stock Exchange listed non-financial firms for the period 2003 to 2016 to establish the most suitable criterion for distinguishing firms into financially constrained versus unconstrained, to determine the effect of the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis on the ICFS and to determine if ICFS is a good measure of financial constraints. The data for the 131 sampled firms was obtained from the financial statements on the IRESS database. The dataset was split into constrained versus unconstrained firms using three firm specific splitting variables: firm size, cash flow holding and dividends pay-out. The data was further split into panel 1 (2003 to 2006 covering the period before the global crisis); panel 2 (2006 to 2010 covering the period including the global financial crisis period) and panel 3 (2010 to 2016 covering the post global financial crisis period). The study utilised the system generalized moments method (GMM) regression model that yields consistent estimates even with unbalanced panel data sets and the Fixed Effects estimator. The models were both implemented on STATA 15 software. Samples split based on the dividend pay-out showed the highest ICFS for financially-constrained firms before, during and after the global financial crisis period. ICFS is highest during the period including the global financial crisis years compared to samples split using firm size and cash flow holding. The study concludes that dividends pay-out is the best criterion to distinguish firms into financially-constrained versus unconstrained; the global financial crisis constrained all firms; and that ICFS can be a good measure of financial constraints. The main limitation to the study was that it used a small sample size in relation to other international studies.