Makungo, R.Nkuna, T. R.Dzaga, A2025-09-162025-09-162025-09-05Dzaga, A. 2025. Spatial variation of historical and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment, Limpopo Province, South Africa. . .https://univendspace.univen.ac.za/handle/11602/2944MESHWRDepartment of Earth SciencesThis study focused on determining the spatial variation of historic and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Trend analysis studies hold considerable scientific and practical importance in assessing hydrological hazards and soil erosion monitoring. Rainfall trends are a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of climate change and offering guidance on how to mitigate its negative effects on agriculture. Rainfall in the Luvuvhu River Catchment exhibits significant variability. Alterations in precipitation patterns and trends can lead to an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as drought and floods. Rainfall data was sourced from the Department of Water and Sanitation, South African Weather Services and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project six. The Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) were used to compute historical and future seasonal rainfall trends for a period of about 135 years from 1950 to 2085. The standard deviation, coefficient of variation, seasonality index and kriging were used to determine spatial variations. The ITA and ARIMA results showed dominantly decreasing trends during summer and all other seasons for both historical and future rainfall data. The results from the ITA method are in agreement with the results of the ARIMA method. The homogeneity test using the Standard Normal Homogeineity Test and the Pettit test was done for the rainfall data. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to check the possible causes of the changes during dry and wet seasons. The historic results of the standard deviation range from 11 in winter to 463 in summer, the coefficient of variation from 0.401 to 1.037 and the seasonality index from 0.02 in winter to 2.358 in summer. The future results indicate that the standard deviation ranges from 2 in winter to 86 in summer, the coefficient of variation from 0.286 to 4.120 and the seasonality index from 0.09 in winter to 3.950 in summer. The kriging results show high variability in the north east side of the catchment where stations such as the Pafuri and Punda Maria are situated for both the historic future seasonal trends . The breaks or changes from the homogeneity tests occurred in the years 1962, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1987,1996, 2005, 2008 and 2012. The results of the two methods compared fairly well. The SPI results indicated that causes of changes were indicated by breaks periods of flooding and periods of drought on the data that occurred in the years 1975, 2000,1990, 2046, 2036, 2076, 2043 and 2073. Trend analysis and forecasting for the catchment using satellite data is recommended in order to compare the results of the current study and other studies that have been done in the catchment. The results in this study indicate that there is a dominant decreasing trend in the catchment, it is therefore recommended that a plan be developed for efficient and sustainable water use, localized climate adaptation strategies be developed and further research be done expanding on the current study.1 online resource (vi, 115 leaves): color illustrations, color mapsenUniversity of VendaClimate changeUCTDExtreme eventsHomogeneity testSeasonal rainfall trendsSpatial variationDissertationDzaga A. Spatial variation of historical and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment, Limpopo Province, South Africa. []. , 2025 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from:Dzaga, A. (2025). <i>Spatial variation of historical and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment, Limpopo Province, South Africa</i>. (). . Retrieved fromDzaga, A. <i>"Spatial variation of historical and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment, Limpopo Province, South Africa."</i> ., , 2025.TY - Dissertation AU - Dzaga, A AB - This study focused on determining the spatial variation of historic and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Trend analysis studies hold considerable scientific and practical importance in assessing hydrological hazards and soil erosion monitoring. Rainfall trends are a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of climate change and offering guidance on how to mitigate its negative effects on agriculture. Rainfall in the Luvuvhu River Catchment exhibits significant variability. Alterations in precipitation patterns and trends can lead to an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as drought and floods. Rainfall data was sourced from the Department of Water and Sanitation, South African Weather Services and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project six. The Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) were used to compute historical and future seasonal rainfall trends for a period of about 135 years from 1950 to 2085. The standard deviation, coefficient of variation, seasonality index and kriging were used to determine spatial variations. The ITA and ARIMA results showed dominantly decreasing trends during summer and all other seasons for both historical and future rainfall data. The results from the ITA method are in agreement with the results of the ARIMA method. The homogeneity test using the Standard Normal Homogeineity Test and the Pettit test was done for the rainfall data. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to check the possible causes of the changes during dry and wet seasons. The historic results of the standard deviation range from 11 in winter to 463 in summer, the coefficient of variation from 0.401 to 1.037 and the seasonality index from 0.02 in winter to 2.358 in summer. The future results indicate that the standard deviation ranges from 2 in winter to 86 in summer, the coefficient of variation from 0.286 to 4.120 and the seasonality index from 0.09 in winter to 3.950 in summer. The kriging results show high variability in the north east side of the catchment where stations such as the Pafuri and Punda Maria are situated for both the historic future seasonal trends . The breaks or changes from the homogeneity tests occurred in the years 1962, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1987,1996, 2005, 2008 and 2012. The results of the two methods compared fairly well. The SPI results indicated that causes of changes were indicated by breaks periods of flooding and periods of drought on the data that occurred in the years 1975, 2000,1990, 2046, 2036, 2076, 2043 and 2073. Trend analysis and forecasting for the catchment using satellite data is recommended in order to compare the results of the current study and other studies that have been done in the catchment. The results in this study indicate that there is a dominant decreasing trend in the catchment, it is therefore recommended that a plan be developed for efficient and sustainable water use, localized climate adaptation strategies be developed and further research be done expanding on the current study. DA - 2025-09-05 DB - ResearchSpace DP - Univen KW - Climate change KW - Extreme events KW - Homogeneity test KW - Seasonal rainfall trends KW - Spatial variation LK - https://univendspace.univen.ac.za PY - 2025 T1 - Spatial variation of historical and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment, Limpopo Province, South Africa TI - Spatial variation of historical and future seasonal rainfall trends in the Luvuvhu River Catchment, Limpopo Province, South Africa UR - ER -