Abstract:
Out of all rain-producing weather systems, cut-off lows (COLs) are linked with the occurrence
of high impact rainfall and in some cases short-lived floods which can last for 24 hours over
South Africa. This study examined the characteristics associated with the present occurrence
of the severe COL systems over South Africa from 2011 to 2017. The accuracy of the 4.4 km
Unified Model (UM) which is currently in use for simulating areas of deep moist convection in
South Africa was evaluated. The UM simulated geopotential height at 500 hPa as well as the
associated 24 hours precipitation which were compared against the daily fields of geopotential
height and 6-hourly precipitation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF). COL events were categorized and analyzed according to the associated
surface circulation patterns at 850 hPa. The seasonal distribution and duration of the systems
over northern (10°E-33°E //22°-32°S) and southern (10°E-33°E //32°-35°S) regions of the
study area were also analyzed. Results show COL systems shifting with season towards the
north eastern parts of the country, with an increased number of events during the austral winter
season during the study period. Systems which lasted for long time were observed during the
austral winter and spring seasons. The UM tends to simulate areas of heavy precipitation
accurately with poor simulation during the initial stages of the systems. The UM provided a
more realistic-looking closed geopotential height and rainfall fields for systems which are
coupled with a cold front at the surface. Application of the knowledge about the evolution in
the characteristics of COL events from this study can improve the operational forecasting of
these weather systems over the country.
