Abstract:
Climate change poses a great risk to natural resources and agriculture in the
Luvuvhu River Catchment. The catchment has experienced floods resulting from
higher than normal rainfall associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone
and cyclones, which have caused enormous damage to property and impacted
negatively on fauna and flora and human livelihoods. In order to understand the
dynamics involved in the effects of climate change in the catchment, annual
maximum flow data was used to evaluate flood frequencies. The distribution
models used in the study included the Generalized Extreme Value distributions,
the Gumbel Extreme Value type I distribution, the Log-normal distribution and
the Log Pearson type III distribution. The extreme value analysis showed that the
Log-normal and Log-Pearson type III distributions provided the best fit, which
could be used to derive the probability of occurrence of flood events. The results
showed a general increase in the frequency of extreme events, accompanied by
floods of higher magnitude.
